A War That Has Already Cost Over $280 Billion and Achieved None of Its Objectives

In total, we are looking at at least $280–300 billion in just 40 days of war, without even counting direct damage inside Iran or the broader global economic ripple effects

Seven weeks ago, based on the figures from the 12-day war, I estimated that a new large-scale conflict against Iran would cost in the order of $360 billion just in the first three months.

Today, after 40 days of fighting and with a possible ceasefire agreement on the horizon, the numbers suggest that my estimate could be surpassed well before the 90-day mark.

Each day of coalition air operations costs around $1 billion. That alone adds up to approximately $40 billion in operational costs so far. According to the Payne Institute for Public Policy, the war with Iran is facing a serious crisis due to unsustainable ammunition consumption rates and exorbitant replenishment costs, which have already exceeded $50 billion.

When we look at material losses, the situation becomes even worse. Reports show that several of the 13 American bases struck have become practically uninhabitable. Housing blocks were destroyed, communication facilities, power plants, and water systems were pulverized. Just the high-complexity radars confirmed as damaged or destroyed by satellite imagery and intelligence reports up to early April already exceed $4 billion.

On top of that, damage to intelligence and command aircraft, such as the two E-3 Sentry and the E-7 Wedgetail, pushes the bill to around $2 billion. When we add losses of KC-135 tankers, F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, and drones, the total easily climbs by another $2 billion.

On the Israeli side, although the government tries to downplay the figures, it is estimated that at least two F-35I Adir units suffered severe damage or total loss in attacks on Nevatim base. When combined with the F-16I Sufa and F-15I Ra’am hit during interception missions, the damage to Israeli aircraft approaches $1 billion.

However, nothing compares to the material and economic destruction inflicted on the region, especially in energy infrastructure and aluminum smelters.

Destruction of Energy Infrastructure

Iranian attacks (and the retaliations) turned this war into a direct assault on the Gulf’s energy backbone. Dozens of refineries, oil fields, gas plants, export terminals, and LNG facilities were hit by missiles and drones.

Key facilities such as the Ruwais refinery in the UAE, one of the world’s largest, suffered multiple fires from intercepted debris. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura (550,000 barrels per day capacity) was temporarily shut down after a drone strike in the early days. Refineries in Kuwait (Mina al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah) also reported fires.

The heaviest blow fell on Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world’s largest LNG hub. Iranian missile strikes caused extensive damage, including fires at the Shell Pearl GTL plant. This disrupted about 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity, with full recovery projected to take 3 to 5 years. QatarEnergy has already declared force majeure on long-term contracts.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz made everything far worse, interrupting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply and causing drastic drops in exports (Iraq -76%, Kuwait -73%).

According to Rystad Energy, initial repair and restoration costs for energy infrastructure in the Gulf are already estimated at at least $25 billion, a figure likely to rise as the full extent of the damage becomes clearer.

Destruction of Aluminum Smelters (Metallurgy)

The aluminum sector suffered an even more severe and slower-to-recover blow. The Gulf accounts for about 9% of global primary aluminum production, and two of its largest smelters were directly hit.

• Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in Al Taweelah, Abu Dhabi, sustained significant damage from Iranian missiles and drones. The plant lost power, forcing an emergency shutdown of its potlines. Molten aluminum solidified inside the equipment (“frozen potlines”), causing major structural damage. Full production restoration could take up to a year.
  

• Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) was also attacked, with capacity reduced to about 30% of normal operations.
  

Together, these two smelters represent roughly two-thirds of the Middle East’s aluminum output. The regional capacity loss is around 3 million tons per year. Recovering the damaged smelters may take 6 to 24 months or longer due to the technical complexity of restarting the smelting cells after metal solidification.

Damage to the aluminum smelters alone exceeds $20 billion in initial repairs and lost production.

When we add the destruction of ports, desalination plants (the main source of drinking water in the region), logistics infrastructure, plus economic losses in aviation, tourism, and business, the total for the Gulf countries already surpasses $140 billion, and could reach as high as $194 billion according to UNDP estimates for just one month of war.

In Israel, damage to the chemical, petrochemical, defense, high-tech manufacturing, energy, and port infrastructure, combined with lost productivity, reaches about $20 billion.

In total, we are looking at at least $280–300 billion in just 40 days of war, without even counting direct damage inside Iran or the broader global economic ripple effects, including persistent inflation projected to remain above target by more than 1% for up to two years.

This is an extremely expensive war that, so far, has failed to deliver any of its announced strategic objectives.